Re: <nettime> Russia lost the war already

[David Garcia <d.garcia@new-tactical-research.co.uk>]

"Andreas Broeckmann" wrote:


    Russia's war against Ukraine was lost from day one. The people in Russia 
    must now decide how they want to get out of the mess their leadership 
    created.

    Russia can never win this war. It will not be able to suppress the 
    resistance of the Ukrainian people who, even if Russian troops were to 
    occupy major parts of the territory, would continue to offer both 
    civilian and armed resistance to this occupation. This resistance would 
    not end.

Much as I would like to believe this narrative, I fear it is wishful thinking. As Fiona Hill 
said in a MUST-READ interview in Politico. Putin may have a different vision of success 
other than mere occupation.

"....he (Putin) may not have sufficient force to take the country for a 
protracted period. It also may be that he doesn’t want to occupy the whole country, that 
he wants to break it up, maybe annex some parts of it, maybe leave some of it as rump statelets 
or a larger rump Ukraine somewhere, maybe around Lviv. I’m not saying that I know exactly 

So what Putin wants isn’t necessarily to occupy the whole country, but really to divide it up. 
He’s looked at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and other places where there’s a division of the country 
between the officially sanctioned forces on the one hand, and the rebel forces on the other. 
That’s something that Putin could definitely live with — a fractured, shattered Ukraine with 
different bits being in different statuses.

Reynolds: So step by step, in ways that we haven’t always appreciated in the West, Putin has 
brought back a lot of these countries that were independent after the Soviet collapse back under his 
umbrella. The only country that has so far evaded Putin’s grip has been Ukraine.

Hill: Ukraine, correct. Because it’s bigger and because of its strategic location. That’s what Russia wants 
to ensure, or Putin wants to ensure, that Ukraine like the other countries, has no other option than 
subjugation to Russia."
 
Please read the full text.. It gives some idea of the extreme danger we are facing and how best to resist 
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340
    



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